There’s no shortage of stuff to bet on for Super Bowl 55. You can keep it simple by betting against the spread (currently set at Chiefs -3 on the DraftKings Sportsbook) or jump into the fray over the length of the national anthem. Let’s take a look at some of the most popular prop bets available for the game, and see which ones present some potentially attractive options for bettors.
Leonard Fournette to have the most rushing yards (+175)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have defaulted to Fournette as their starting running back for the playoffs. In part, that’s because Ronald Jones was injured when the postseason began and he missed the Wild Card round. But even with Jones back for their last two playoff games, Fournette still has an edge in carries and yards in both outings. The Bucs are absolutely going to have to run the ball in this one; it’s a week spot in the Chiefs defense and it helps keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. This is the third-most popular prop in terms of bets placed and fifth-most popular for handle, and with the circumstances and +175 odds, I can see why.
MVP award winner - Tom Brady (+210)
Kansas City is favored by three here, so it makes sense why Patrick Mahomes taking the MVP award is the most popular prop by handle and bets placed. If the Chiefs win, the quarterback is almost always a shoo-in for MVP. But don’t forget that the Bucs could also win this one. Tom Brady has been to a few Super Bowls before this one, nine to be exact, and he’s been the game’s MVP four times. The odds here make this one a really attractive option.
Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass (+165)
The people who go to Super Bowl parties just for the wings (or used to in a pre-pandemic world) might be surprised to know that, occasionally, someone other than the starting quarterback throws a pass. Trick plays, or whatever you want to call them, are one of the most fun things to see in a game, and the Chiefs occasionally sprinkle in those kinds of plays. Setting aside their backup quarterback’s snaps, the Chiefs had four plays this season where someone other than the QB threw the ball. Tampa Bay did not attempt any such plays—maybe they’re scared off by Tom Brady’s dropped pass in Super Bowl 52. It would not be uncharacteristic of Andy Reid to call one of these plays.
You’re also betting on the potential for a backup quarterback to enter the game, which would mean one of the starters is injured. That’s not out of the question. A player might take a hard hit and have to leave for the league’s concussion protocols, getting checked out and cleared before coming back into the game. It’s unlikely that anyone but Brady and Mahomes throws a pass here, but at those odds it’s worth a flyer.
Coin toss outcome - heads (-103)
Coin toss outcome - tails (-103)
Tails has come up a lot lately—six out of the last seven Super Bowl coin tosses have landed that way—so it kind of feels like we’re due for heads. In the five games before that, from 2009 through 2013, it was heads each time. These things tend to happen in bunches rather than alternate much from year to year. It’s interesting that heads is the third-most popular prop bet by handle, but it’s not even in the top 10 for bets — though tails is.
Tom Brady over 0.5 rushing yards (+140)
Brady isn’t exactly known for his running prowess, despite all those avocados he eats. He had a grand total of six rushing yards in the regular season (though he did have three rushing touchdowns). He’s had negative rushing yards seven times this year through the regular season and playoffs, that includes two postseason games with negative rushing yards. In nine Super Bowl appearances, he has 30 yards on 10 attempts. When he squared off against current Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in Super Bowl 42 (Spags was the Giants DC in that one), Brady didn’t run the ball at all, despite being sacked five times. So while half a yard may not seem like much, it might as well be a furlong for Brady.
First scoring play - Buccaneers field goal (+430)
First scoring play - Chiefs field goal (+420)
You might think with two high-flying offenses like these, it’s going to be touchdown after touchdown, but you have to remember that teams typically go pretty conservative to open up the Super Bowl. The scoring in four of the last five Super Bowls opened with a field goal. Even more fascinating is that in nine Super Bowl appearances, Tom Brady has never led a first-quarter touchdown drive. The Chiefs let the Bills open the scoring with a field goal in the AFC Championship game this year too, and the 49ers got on the board first last year with a three-pointer. The trickiest part of this is that it’s going to depend on who wins the coin toss, so it might be worth some coin on both outcomes here.
Top ten prop bets by handle
- MVP Award Winner - Patrick Mahomes: -106
- MVP Award Winner - Tom Brady: +210
- Coin Toss Outcome - Heads: -103
- Coin Toss Outcome - Tails: -103
- Leonard Fournette to have Most Rushing Yards: +175
- First Scoring Play - KC Chiefs Field Goal: +430
- First Scoring Play - TB Buccaneers Field Goal: +420
- First Scoring Play - KC Chiefs Touchdown: +155
- Tom Brady over 0.5 Rushing Yards: +140
- Over 2.5 Players to Attempt a Pass: +165
Top ten prop bets by total bets
- MVP Award Winner - Patrick Mahomes: -106
- MVP Award Winner - Tom Brady: +210
- Leonard Fournette to have Most Rushing Yards: +175
- First Scoring Play - KC Chiefs Field Goal: +430
- First Scoring Play - TB Buccaneers Field Goal: +420
- First Scoring Play - KC Chiefs Touchdown: +155
- Coin Toss Outcome - Tails: -103
- First Scoring Play - TB Buccaneers Touchdown: +195
- Over 2.5 Players to Attempt a Pass: +165
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire to have the Most Rushing Yards+400
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February 06, 2021 at 07:00PM
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Super Bowl prop bets 2021: Most popular picks include Patrick Mahomes/Tom Brady MVP, coin toss, scoring, more - DraftKings Nation
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